{
    "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
    "timezone": "Asia/Taipei",
    "schema": "market-regime/1",
    "docs": "https://jimfab.tw/tools/market-regime/",
    "regime": {
        "inflation_fed": "developing",
        "inflation_path": "金融環境自我收緊",
        "rate_level": "very_high",
        "rate_direction": "mixed",
        "rate_status": "high_mixed",
        "growth": "accelerating",
        "growth_confirmation": "market_proxy",
        "growth_vs_rate_quadrant": "g_up_r_up",
        "yield_curve": "bear_steepening",
        "ai_cycle": "developing",
        "ai_hardware_quality": "insufficient_data",
        "ai_rotation": "infrastructure_price_leadership",
        "ai_rotation_confirmation": "price_only"
    },
    "rates": {
        "us2y": {
            "value": 4.88,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": -0.01,
            "change_5d": 0.03,
            "change_20d": 0.49,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:16+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "us10y": {
            "value": 5.29,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": 0.03,
            "change_5d": 0.18,
            "change_20d": 0.5,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:24+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "us30y": {
            "value": 5.64,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": 0.05,
            "change_5d": 0.24,
            "change_20d": 0.37,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:34+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "real10y": {
            "value": 2.93,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": 0.02,
            "change_5d": 0.17,
            "change_20d": 0.49,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:42+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "breakeven10y": {
            "value": 2.36,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": 0,
            "change_5d": 0.03,
            "change_20d": 0.02,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-01",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:08+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "curve_2s10s": {
            "value": 0.41,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": 0.04,
            "change_5d": 0.15,
            "change_20d": 0.01,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 US10Y − US2Y(FRED)",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "fed_funds": {
            "value": 3.88,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": 0,
            "change_5d": 0,
            "change_20d": 0.25,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:57+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "tbill_3m": {
            "value": 4.03,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": -0.04,
            "change_5d": -0.01,
            "change_20d": 0.25,
            "trend": "neutral",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:06+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "fed_expectation_3m": {
            "value": 0.15,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": -0.04,
            "change_5d": -0.01,
            "change_20d": 0,
            "trend": "down",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 TBILL3M − Fed Funds(FRED)",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "fed_expectation_2y": {
            "value": 1,
            "unit": "pct",
            "change_1d": -0.01,
            "change_5d": 0.03,
            "change_20d": 0.24,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-09-30",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 US2Y − Fed Funds(FRED)",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        }
    },
    "markets": {
        "dxy": {
            "value": 101.62,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": -0.1081,
            "change_5d": 0.9236,
            "change_20d": 2.7606,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:43+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "gold": {
            "value": 4138.84,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": -0.9259,
            "change_5d": -3.2235,
            "change_20d": -4.7952,
            "trend": "down",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:06+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "brent": {
            "value": 113.96,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": -5.0096,
            "change_5d": -0.8095,
            "change_20d": 18.6836,
            "trend": "neutral",
            "as_of": "2026-09-29",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:48+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "wti": {
            "value": 90.81,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": -1.5183,
            "change_5d": -1.8589,
            "change_20d": -5.5145,
            "trend": "down",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:06+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "usdjpy": {
            "value": 157.855,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": -0.1354,
            "change_5d": 0.3707,
            "change_20d": 1.0356,
            "trend": "neutral",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:05+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "qqq": {
            "value": 749.5,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 1.0312,
            "change_5d": 0.6729,
            "change_20d": 4.5474,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:07+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "soxx": {
            "value": 591.13,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 2.6267,
            "change_5d": 3.2415,
            "change_20d": 17.6964,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:08+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "ewt": {
            "value": 116,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 2.8734,
            "change_5d": 1.0893,
            "change_20d": 5.3109,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:49+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "tqqq": {
            "value": 81.03,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 3.1572,
            "change_5d": 1.7965,
            "change_20d": 12.4792,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:09+08:00",
            "source": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "vix": {
            "value": 16.39,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 0.306,
            "change_5d": 4.5948,
            "change_20d": 14.4553,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-01",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily",
            "stale": false
        },
        "mag7": {
            "value": 115.4632,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 1.6616,
            "change_5d": 0.045,
            "change_20d": 3.1586,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 7 檔等權(eToro)",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "mag7_ex_nvda": {
            "value": 112.4069,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 1.6262,
            "change_5d": -0.6987,
            "change_20d": 3.1327,
            "trend": "up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 6 檔等權(eToro),排除 NVDA",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        }
    },
    "relative_strength": {
        "soxx_qqq": {
            "value": 0.7887,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 1.5792,
            "change_5d": 2.5514,
            "change_20d": 12.5771,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 SOXX ÷ QQQ(皆取 eToro 收盤)",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "soxx_mag7": {
            "value": 5.1196,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 0.9494,
            "change_5d": 3.1951,
            "change_20d": 14.0927,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 SOXX ÷ Mag7 等權指數",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "soxx_mag7_ex_nvda": {
            "value": 5.2588,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 0.9845,
            "change_5d": 3.9679,
            "change_20d": 14.1213,
            "trend": "strong_up",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 SOXX ÷ Mag7 ex-NVDA",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "ewt_qqq": {
            "value": 0.1548,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 1.8234,
            "change_5d": 0.4136,
            "change_20d": 0.7304,
            "trend": "neutral",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 EWT ÷ QQQ(eToro)",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        },
        "ewt_soxx": {
            "value": 0.1962,
            "unit": "price",
            "change_1d": 0.2403,
            "change_5d": -2.0846,
            "change_20d": -10.5232,
            "trend": "strong_down",
            "as_of": "2026-10-02",
            "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
            "source": "衍生自 EWT ÷ SOXX(eToro)",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "stale": false
        }
    },
    "confirmation_chain": {
        "steps": [
            {
                "key": "WTI",
                "label": "油價下跌",
                "role": "通膨的成本面",
                "want": "down",
                "state": "confirmed",
                "why": "1 日 同向、5 日 同向、20 日 同向、站在 20 日均線下方（1D -2% / 5D -2% / 20D -6%）"
            },
            {
                "key": "BREAKEVEN",
                "label": "通膨預期下降",
                "role": "市場對長期通膨的定價",
                "want": "down",
                "state": "not_confirmed",
                "why": "尚未出現方向（1D +0bp / 5D +3bp / 20D +2bp）"
            },
            {
                "key": "FED_EXP_3M",
                "label": "近期升息預期下降",
                "role": "短端相對 Fed Funds 的溢價收斂",
                "want": "down",
                "state": "developing",
                "why": "站在 20 日均線下方（1D -4bp / 5D -1bp / 20D +0bp）"
            },
            {
                "key": "US2Y",
                "label": "2 年期殖利率下降",
                "role": "短端跟著政策預期走",
                "want": "down",
                "state": "not_confirmed",
                "why": "尚未出現方向（1D -1bp / 5D +3bp / 20D +49bp）"
            },
            {
                "key": "REAL10Y",
                "label": "實質利率下降",
                "role": "成長股折現率的核心",
                "want": "down",
                "state": "invalidated",
                "why": "方向相反（1D +2bp / 5D +17bp / 20D +49bp）"
            },
            {
                "key": "DXY",
                "label": "美元走弱",
                "role": "利差支撐消退",
                "want": "down",
                "state": "not_confirmed",
                "why": "尚未出現方向（1D -0% / 5D +1% / 20D +3%）"
            },
            {
                "key": "GOLD",
                "label": "黃金走強",
                "role": "實質利率下降的鏡像",
                "want": "up",
                "state": "invalidated",
                "why": "方向相反（1D -1% / 5D -3% / 20D -5%）"
            },
            {
                "key": "QQQ",
                "label": "成長資產上漲",
                "role": "估值壓力解除的最終結果",
                "want": "up",
                "state": "confirmed",
                "why": "1 日 同向、20 日 同向、站在 20 日均線上方（1D +1% / 5D +1% / 20D +5%）"
            }
        ],
        "confirmed": 2,
        "total": 8,
        "note": "這條鏈是事先寫定的假說(通膨降溫 → 政策寬鬆 → 估值壓力解除),不是從資料歸納出來的。各節可以不按順序亮燈 —— 後段先亮而前段沒亮,通常代表走的是另一條路徑(例如金融環境自我收緊)。"
    },
    "what_changed": [],
    "divergences": [],
    "machine_summary": "美國 10 年期公債殖利率 5.29%、2 年期 4.88%,利率水準為「極高」,方向為「兩端分歧」。利率水準極高,但兩端分歧 —— 2 年期已自高點回落,其餘仍在上行。Fed 緊縮預期的判定為「發展中」,目前走的是「金融環境自我收緊」路徑。成長動能正在加速,成長與利率的組合落在「成長吸收利率壓力」。成長動能目前只有市場 proxy,沒有盈餘面確認。AI 內部輪動的狀態為「Infrastructure 價格領先（基本面未確認）」。該判定僅根據價格層,尚無獲利修正資料佐證。反轉確認鏈目前 2 / 8 節確認,完整的總體反轉尚未成立。",
    "data_quality": {
        "ok": 27,
        "total": 27,
        "stale": 0,
        "failures": [],
        "last_successful_update": "2026-10-03T01:01:19+08:00",
        "update_frequency": "hourly"
    },
    "sources": [
        {
            "name": "eToro Public API",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "covers": "USDJPY, Gold, WTI, QQQ, SOXX, TQQQ, DXY, EWT, Mag7 constituents"
        },
        {
            "name": "FRED",
            "frequency": "daily (T+1)",
            "covers": "US2Y, US10Y, US30Y, 10Y real yield, 10Y breakeven, Fed funds, 3M T-bill",
            "note": "Closing values only. Intraday moves are not visible here."
        },
        {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "frequency": "hourly",
            "covers": "Brent, VIX"
        },
        {
            "name": "Alpha Vantage",
            "frequency": "daily rotation",
            "covers": "Forward EPS estimates, ETF constituent weights",
            "note": "Free tier 25 req/day; per-name data may lag 2-3 days."
        }
    ],
    "disclaimer": "Mechanical summary of public data. Not investment advice."
}